By Mark Schilling
It's now official -- the big match-up of the coming Christmas season will be Hayao Miyazaki's Howl's Moving Castle, scheduled to open on November 20, versus Pixar's The Incredibles, set for release on December 4. This sort of big head-to-head box office battle between is a first between the two animation heavyweights -- and is sure to be bitterly fought by distributors Toho and Buena Vista . Ironically Miyazaki and Pixar's John Lasseter are the best of friends -- Lasseter visits Miyazaki's Studio Ghibli every time he comes to Tokyo and a poster signed by Lassiter and Pixar animators graces the Ghibli entrance.
Given his track record, Miyazaki should win the contest hands down. His last film, Spirited Away, grossed $279 million at the Japanese box office, an all-time record for any film, domestic or foreign. Pixar's Finding Nemo broke Spirited's opening weekend record last December with $10.2 million and 900,447 admissions on 720 screens, but finished under the $100 million mark.
In the first weeks, however, the advantage should go to The Incredibles, which will open on nearly 750 screens, compared with only 200 to 300 for Howl's. Studio Ghibli president Toshio Suzuki, who masterminded the releases of Spirited Away and other Miyazaki hits, prefers the traditional long-but-profitable-run -- Spirited was in the theatres for the better part of a year -- to the Hollywood strategy of going for broke on the first weekend.
Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli have been thumping Disney releases head-to-head at the Japanese box office for more than a decade, with Miyazaki's Porco Rosso nearly doubling the take of Beauty and the Beast. Miyazaki films have long been summer releases, however -- Howl's was supposed to open in July, but production delays forced a switch to November. Also, despite its Disney connections, Pixar is seen as a separate brand by Japanese filmgoers -- with a 3-D product that Japanese animators cannot yet technically match. Will the different date and competition throw Ghibli off its stride? Don't bet on it -- the Japanese market is still Miyazaki's house and, though he may invite friends to stay, he is not ready to hand over the deed.
